Technical Forecast: USD/CAD

Hi Dave,

Would you mind sharing your outlook for USD/CAD?


Konrad R. – Salt Lake City, Utah


Thanks for the question.

We had been short USD/CAD from 1.3238 back on June 23rd and closed it on July 6th at a revised stop-loss of 1.2965. It was a great trade and netted +273 pips.

Based on the chart I posted to clients with the revised stop-loss, I felt pretty darn good about it.

  • A completed 5-wave move lower – completing Wave iii at 161.8% of Wave i
  • Bullish RSI divergence into new lows
  • Weaker oil prices

Despite this ‘logic’ prices moved lower again on July 7th despite a stronger USD and weaker oil prices.

As we all know, we can never be perfect in trading. We make our assessments and live with the consequences and learn along the way.

Where does USD/CAD go from here?

I am a longer-term bear on USD/CAD and will short it again. But for the time being I expect a bit of a correction higher not only based on the wave count but some DeMark ’13’ readings on various time frames.

Moves back into the 1.3000-1.3200 area should offer up nice short entries.

Hope that helps.

Have a question for me? Just ask.

Showing 2 comments
  • Konrad Rotermund

    Thank you for the prompt answer. I was also short and covered, but I felt Friday was over done considering the surrounding markets. I am light long looking to add for a move to 1.31ish

    • Dave Floyd

      My pleasure Konrad.

      Enjoy the rest of the weekend.

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