FX Review – Week of November 6, 2016

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Good Sunday morning traders.

I have quite a bit to get to, so let’s get started.

First, let’s take a quick review of some of last week’s Short-Term Forecasts and Trade Idea(s)in italics

November 7th

Spot on in GBP/USD and NZD/USD

  • On a shorter-term basis – NZD/USD is certainly worth a look here from the long side.

  • GBP/USD: Cautiously Bullish looks like the current pull-back off the highs should find support in and around 1.2422-1.2339
    • Action: for today, consider building longs into this Fib Support Zone (FSZ) with stops below 1.2280

November 8th

We were early on EUR/SEK. Post-election price action made hanging with shorts pretty tough.

  • EUR/SEK: Cautiously Bearish the Oct 26th thrust higher appears to have completed at 10.00. This is a very simple observation, but the overnight break below 9.9192 could usher in lower levels
    • Action: for today, consider selling the move below 9.9192 with an eye on prices moving lower towards 9.8421-9.8032

November 9th

USD/SGD has played out very well

NOTE: Trade Ideas are not ‘official’ trade signals – simply set-ups that are attractive and might appeal to traders comfortable managing their own positions.

Traders, as noted in my initial post just a short while ago…the dust is settling and it is starting to appear that the themes overall remain intact. In this instance I am referring to a stronger DXC.

I am throwing this out there as an option to consider. I am not issuing it as a NEW TRADE ALERT simply due to the increased level of volatility

  • Go long USD/SGD at 1.3965
  • Stops at 1.3693 but will look to quickly raise them to 1.3820
  • Targeting 1.4140-1.4250

USD/SGD

November 10th

Early stages of a move lower IMO still underway in AUD/USD. USD/ZAR met the upside target

  • AUD/USD: Cautiously Bearish this may seem like a surprise in this bullish equity environment, but the fact is, AUD/USD simply cannot get going in here. The sideways chop since May is offering up very little in terms of an upside breakout despite a nice and orderly series of .618 Fib pull-backs
    • Action: for today, consider selling a break below .7552 with an immediate target of .7515 but with some patience look towards .7432-.7350
  • USD/ZAR: Bullish price action on the daily chart suggests a sustained turn higher could be in the making here
    • Action: for today, consider getting long from current levels (13.89) and targeting 14.40

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NEW TRADE ALERTS & Trades In The Making

We were stopped out of USD/CHF last week with post-election nonsense – but that is trading. After licking our wounds there, we booked very modest profits in AUD/NZD.

By the end of the week however, we were short EUR/SEK and AUD/CAD. Let’s see how these play out.

Looking ahead, here are some charts/thoughts to keep in mind.

If you would like access to the rest of this report, click here

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